A 21st Century Warming Threshold for Sustained Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss

نویسندگان

چکیده

Under anticipated future warming, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) will pass a threshold when meltwater runoff exceeds accumulation of snow, resulting in negative surface mass balance (SMB < 0) and sustained loss. Here, we dynamically statistically downscale outputs an Earth system model to 1 km resolution infer that near-surface atmospheric warming 4.5 ± 0.3°C—relative preindustrial—is required for GrIS SMB become persistently negative. Climate models from CMIP5 CMIP6 translate this regional temperature change global 2.7 0.2°C. high-end scenario, may be reached around 2055, while strong mitigation scenario it likely not passed. Depending on emissions taken, our method estimates 6–13 cm sea level rise by year 2100.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Geophysical Research Letters

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1944-8007', '0094-8276']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl090471